For the first time in 64 years, the Olympics are being held in London. The Games of the 30th Olympiad will feature incredible athletes from previous games as well as exceptionally talented up-and-comers who will no doubt wow the lucky attendants and viewers and light up the island of Great Britain. Millions, if not billions, of people all over the planet will tune in to watch for two weeks as participating nations set aside their differences amid a spike in patriotism and compete in various sports. It's one of the few things that makes me feel sincerely patriotic and in this article I'll outline my predictions for the track events1 — the sport in the Summer Games I'm particularly keen on. The sprints will see the continued rivalry of the US in bright red and the Jamaicans in their yellow and green, while the distances will once again pit the red and green of Ethiopia against the green, red, and black of Kenya. If I'm correct, there will be numerous personal records, including five new world records.
Of the eventual eight finalists on the women's side, it would not surprise me if at least half of them hail from Jamaica and the United States. The three Jamaicans going, Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce (10.70), Veronica Campbell-Brown (10.76), and Kerron Stewart (10.75), all ran under 11 seconds in their trials to punch their tickets to London and will be extremely formidable opponents to anyone in the world. Their biggest threat, however, comes in American Carmelita Jeter, the second fastest woman of all time, who has run 10.64 seconds as a PR. Looking for a medal in the event as well is another American (and one of my favorite athletes), Allyson Felix (10.92), who will be competing in the 100 on this level for the first time ever.
Despite formidable competition from Jamaica, I think the current fastest woman in the world will once again show why she has that distinction and win her first Olympic gold with the steadily improving Fraser-Pryce second and the reigning Olympic 200 champ third.
100 METER DASH
Of the eventual eight finalists on the women's side, it would not surprise me if at least half of them hail from Jamaica and the United States. The three Jamaicans going, Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce (10.70), Veronica Campbell-Brown (10.76), and Kerron Stewart (10.75), all ran under 11 seconds in their trials to punch their tickets to London and will be extremely formidable opponents to anyone in the world. Their biggest threat, however, comes in American Carmelita Jeter, the second fastest woman of all time, who has run 10.64 seconds as a PR. Looking for a medal in the event as well is another American (and one of my favorite athletes), Allyson Felix (10.92), who will be competing in the 100 on this level for the first time ever.
Despite formidable competition from Jamaica, I think the current fastest woman in the world will once again show why she has that distinction and win her first Olympic gold with the steadily improving Fraser-Pryce second and the reigning Olympic 200 champ third.
GOLD: CARMELITA JETER (USA) — 10.64
SILVER: SHELLY-ANN FRASER-PRYCE (JAM) — 10.67
BRONZE: VERONICA CAMPBELL-BROWN (JAM) — 10.74
Just as competitive or more so than the women will be the men. And yes, the final will undoubtedly feature the one and only Usain Bolt (unless, of course, he false starts in the earlier rounds — which would be probably even more tragic than his false start in last year's World Championships final). The fastest man ever's biggest rival will be his own training partner, Yohan Blake (9.75), who's been mercilessly smashing everyone's expectations and is slated as the only person who could upset Bolt (9.58), especially if he gets a better start.2 The 22 year old has launched himself into the position of fourth fastest human in history in the 100 and second in the 200. Hoping to crash this Jamaican party are the American duo of Tyson Gay (9.69), the American record holder in the event, and Justin Gatlin (9.80), who's been unbeatable this year. Although Gay has been coming back from an injury that caused him to not go after the 200 gold, I think he'll still have a strong performance while Gatlin will set another PR. France's Christophe Lemaitre (9.92), the only Caucasian to ever go under 10 seconds in the event, will be looking to upset. Another person to look out for is Jamaica's Asafa Powell, a former world record holder. Even though he generally under-performs in huge races like the Olympic finals, you can't ignore a guy who's sprinted to 9.72. With so much talent likely to be crammed into the final, some amazing times will undoubtedly go down.
Usain Bolt is still Usain Bolt after all and I think he'll rise to the occasion as always and put on a spectacular show and set another world record while showing his training partner who the world's best really is. Although I don't expect him to PR, Gay will likely dig deep and nab the last medal.
3 The guy ran a 46.96 when he was 14 years old — I kid you not. That's over ten seconds faster than my personal best (and I was 18 when I did it).
4 That's an average of 4:13.9 per mile for 6.2 miles.
5 If you race in a fast enough tail wind (100m, 100H, 110H, or 200m), your time won't count as a world record, national record, etc. since the wind is considered fast enough to physically assist you in your race.
6 At the 2009 World Championships in Berlin, the US actually completed the race, but were disqualified after Great Britain pointed out that they had a lane violation during the race — one of the American runners stepped a smidgen out of his lane.
7 Or a team from the US, such as Stanford University in 1931.
Usain Bolt is still Usain Bolt after all and I think he'll rise to the occasion as always and put on a spectacular show and set another world record while showing his training partner who the world's best really is. Although I don't expect him to PR, Gay will likely dig deep and nab the last medal.
GOLD: USAIN BOLT (JAM) — 9.55 WR
SILVER: YOHAN BLAKE (JAM) — 9.65
BRONZE: TYSON GAY (USA) — 9.70
200 METER DASH
2 Blake actually beat him in both the 100 and 200 finals of the Jamaican Olympic trials.200 METER DASH
Fraser-Pryce (22.10) and Campell-Brown (21.74) will be back for the 200 along with Sherone Simpson (22.00) and will make up one side of a titanic clash with Americans Jeter (22.11), Felix (21.69), and Sanya Richards-Ross (22.09). Felix is the fourth fastest woman in history in the 200 and Richards-Ross holds the second fastest time in the world this year (after Felix's recent PR). Both countries would love a sweep and I think they will exclude athletes from any other country from medaling. This year, though, I think the US has the advantage and will be making a big statement in the world of women's sprinting.
I cannot see anyone beating Felix and I bet she dashes to another PR as she wins her first non-relay Olympic gold. With the way she's been performing lately (her performances and training have recently been compared to Michael Johnson when he was setting records), Richards-Ross will, I think, sprint to a second place despite also going after 400 gold while Jeter will snatch third.
I cannot see anyone beating Felix and I bet she dashes to another PR as she wins her first non-relay Olympic gold. With the way she's been performing lately (her performances and training have recently been compared to Michael Johnson when he was setting records), Richards-Ross will, I think, sprint to a second place despite also going after 400 gold while Jeter will snatch third.
GOLD: ALLYSON FELIX (USA) — 21.66
SILVER: SANYA RICHARDS-ROSS (USA) — 22.05
BRONZE: CARMELITA JETER (USA) — 22.06
Like how he did in his national trials, Yohan Blake (19.26) will try to beat Bolt (19.19) again in the half-lap race. The two sprinters are the best the world has ever seen in the event and there is pretty much no doubt, barring some sort of DQ or a fall, that they will go 1-2. American Wallace Spearmon, Jr (19.65), who was DQ'd in Beijing for a lane violation during his bronze medal victory lap, will be looking for redemption and should be in good contention for getting that elusive third-place medal. Lemaitre of France (19.80) will be another contender. Like the 100, the sheer talent present in the top runners here will result in some epic times being thrown down.
To supplement his 100 win, I think Bolt will grab a second 200 Olympic gold and defy the naysayers to break another WR. Blake should lower his already outstanding best to finish a relatively close second with Spearmon pulling out an inspirational bronze performance.
To supplement his 100 win, I think Bolt will grab a second 200 Olympic gold and defy the naysayers to break another WR. Blake should lower his already outstanding best to finish a relatively close second with Spearmon pulling out an inspirational bronze performance.
GOLD: USAIN BOLT (JAM) — 19.16 WR
SILVER: YOHAN BLAKE (JAM) — 19.19
BRONZE: WALLACE SPEARMON, JR (USA) — 19.63
400 METER DASH
Like they so often do, the United States will be fielding some excellent athletes, including American record holder, another one of my favorite athletes, and gold-favorite Sanya Richards-Ross (48.70). Christine Ohuruogu of Great Britain (49.61) and Americans Dee Dee Trotter (49.64) and Francena McCorory (50.06) are other athletes to watch out for. If Allyson Felix were competing here instead of the 100, she would probably also be in medal contention.
Unless she falls or is DQ'd, I can't imagine Richards Ross losing in her best event. Even doing the 200 as well shouldn't stop her from a huge performance that I bet will result in a sub-49 second finish. McCorory, who's been steadily improving and seems ready for another breakthrough will, I predict, come second behind her teammate while Britain's Ohuruogu nabs the bronze.
Unless she falls or is DQ'd, I can't imagine Richards Ross losing in her best event. Even doing the 200 as well shouldn't stop her from a huge performance that I bet will result in a sub-49 second finish. McCorory, who's been steadily improving and seems ready for another breakthrough will, I predict, come second behind her teammate while Britain's Ohuruogu nabs the bronze.
GOLD: SANYA RICHARDS-ROSS (USA) — 48.95
SILVER: FRANCENA MCCORORY (USA) — 49.85
BRONZE: CHRISTINE OHURUOGU (GBR) — 49.90
As on the women's side, the US will be fielding some outstanding quarter-milers. LaShawn Merritt (43.75), the fifth fastest person ever to run one lap of the track, will be leading the American charge and is the favorite to win another gold. Tony McQuay (44.49), the phenomenal collegiate runner out of the University of Florida, will likely be right up towards the front in the final close to Merritt. Kirani James (44.36), Grenada's 19 year old phenom who beat Merritt in last year's World Championships, could easily grab a medal as well and could be the event's biggest dark horse.3 Great Britain also has an excellent 400 sprinter in Martyn Rooney who has gone 44.60 before. Although I doubt he'll make the final, South Africa's Oscar Pistorius (45.07), "Blade Runner," will be the first double amputee to ever compete on the track at the Olympics. I would really like to see him do well. I have a feeling that London could boast one of the fastest finals in the 400 we've ever seen.
The likelihood of Merritt getting beaten is probably on par with Richards-Ross getting beaten. The guy has amazing stamina and an unrivaled finish and will achieve a very impressive time on his way to an easy victory. James I think will show the world he's the next Merritt or even Michael Johnson when he likely takes second with the collegiate McQuay acquiring his first Olympic hardware.
The likelihood of Merritt getting beaten is probably on par with Richards-Ross getting beaten. The guy has amazing stamina and an unrivaled finish and will achieve a very impressive time on his way to an easy victory. James I think will show the world he's the next Merritt or even Michael Johnson when he likely takes second with the collegiate McQuay acquiring his first Olympic hardware.
GOLD: LASHAWN MERRITT (USA) — 43.73
SILVER: KIRANI JAMES (GRD) — 44.28
BRONZE: TONY MCQUAY (USA) — 44.40
800 METER RUN
800 METER RUN
Several different athletes from several different countries could pull out the win in the women's 800. The top American is Alysia Montaño who has a PR of 1:57.34 and Russia have very quick half-milers in Mariya Savinova, the reigning world champ at 1:55.87, and Ekaterina Kostetskaya at 1:56.67. Caster Semenya, the South African who stunned the world by winning the 2009 world final in Berlin before becoming the center of a humiliating controversy regarding her gender, has run a time almost half a second better than Savinova and looks to be ready to make another statement. Kenya's Pamela Jelimo, who won her country's trials and has a blistering PR of 1:54.01, will be a huge factor in the race. Of all the races I've predicted so far in this article, this one's top three are probably up for grabs the most.
It's hard to imagine anyone beating someone who just recently almost broke 1:54, so Jelimo gets my pick for the gold. Semenya should power her way into second with the Russian Savinova almost living up to her World Championships performance to get third.
It's hard to imagine anyone beating someone who just recently almost broke 1:54, so Jelimo gets my pick for the gold. Semenya should power her way into second with the Russian Savinova almost living up to her World Championships performance to get third.
GOLD: PAMELA JELIMO (KEN) — 1:55.4
SILVER: CASTER SEMENYA (RSA) — 1:55.7
BRONZE: MARIYA SAVINOVA (RUS) — 1:56.8
The men's side, I believe, will be one of the most exciting finals on the rubber oval. Kenya's brilliant David Rudisha, who broke the world record twice in one week back in 2010, will, I think, break it again and lower his time of 1:41.01. Despite a wealth of talent to join him in the final, I cannot imagine anyone even coming close to the 23 year old as he dashes down the home-stretch toward his first Olympic gold. With his powerful stride and his ability to run from the front, Rudisha will likely lead the half-mile race from start to finish, extending his lead all the way. The event's top American, my favorite 800 guy Nick Symmonds, says he's going for gold and will be a potential medal-winner (unless Rudisha goes down in the race, though, Symmonds will pretty much have no chance of earning gold) and I think will lower his PR of 1:43.76. Despite always coming from the very back to finish high up with that great kick of his, I think Symmonds will force himself to run in the middle of the pack during the first 600 meters in order to set himself up for a competitive finish. Another very talent runner is Sudan's Abubaker Kaki who has done 1:42.23 and has pretty much established himself as the world's second best 800 runner after Rudisha.
So after Rudisha's likely world record, I think Kaki will assert his own dominance over the rest of the field with a near-PR. If he digs really deep, I can see Symmonds utilizing that funny running form of his to kick his way to bronze. He's ready, I think, for his first Olympic medal.
So after Rudisha's likely world record, I think Kaki will assert his own dominance over the rest of the field with a near-PR. If he digs really deep, I can see Symmonds utilizing that funny running form of his to kick his way to bronze. He's ready, I think, for his first Olympic medal.
GOLD: DAVID RUDISHA (KEN) — 1:40.9 WR
SILVER: ABUBAKER KAKI (SUD) — 1:42.3
BRONZE: NICK SYMMONDS (USA) — 1:43.6
1500 METER RUN
1500 METER RUN
Like the 800, the women's 1500 is a very open race. At the 2011 World Championships, the top nine finishers were all from different countries and were separated by all but three seconds (surprisingly, none of the nine were Kenyan and only one was Ethiopian). The Americans have three superb middle-distance runners to lead the western hemisphere assault in Morgan Uceny (4:00.06), Shannon Rowbury (4:00.33), and Jenny Simpson (3:59.90 — she is the defending world champ). Hannah England of, yep, Great Britain (4:01.89) was the world runner-up last year and will certainly be in contention for a medal as well as Spain's Natalia Rodríguez (3:59.51). Kenya's top athlete going into the preliminaries, Hellen Obiri, has run a 3:59.68 which is right up with the best non-Africans listed above. Ethiopia's top runner, though, Abeba Aregawi, threw down a huge 3:56.54 only a couple months ago and is likely going to run very close to that again in London. Right behind her is teammate Genzebe Dibaba who threw down her own 3:57.77 just before.
Because of that recent 3:56, I feel that Aregawi will win her first Olympic final with her teammate Dibaba second. Morgan Uceny has, I think, the ability to break the east African assault on this mid-d event and finish an impressive third.
Like they always do, Kenya will be the country to beat in the "metric mile." Tall and lanky world leader Asbel Kiprop, who just ran a personal best this past Friday of 3:28.88 (which converts to about a 3:45.5 mile) is likely the favorite to win and will be joined by formidable countryman Silas Kiplagat who has done only about half a second slower. The US will be fielding tiny Leo Manzano (3:32.37), defending world bronze medalist Matthew Centrowitz (3:34.46), and towering Andrew Wheating (3:30.60). Of these three, I think Centrowitz has the best chance of bringing a 1500 meter medal back to the States. Nick Willis of New Zealand will be another competitor to look out for — the Kiwi has a PR only a second and a half off Kiprop's.
The thing about 1500 meter finals, especially on the men's side and on big stages like the Games, is that it's often slow until the last lap where it becomes a kicking competition. This'll make it harder to predict not just the places, but the times. At last year's World Championships, this race tactic allowed Centrowitz to pull off a surprise third and could let some more surprise finished happen. Although it can be frustrating watching athletes not try to go after PRs, it usually makes for one hell of an exciting finish.
Despite some quick teammates, I think Kiprop will continue proving he's currently the best 1500 runner in the world and win his second Summer Games gold with Kiplagat finishing on his heals. Nick Willis might just try to revive the great Kiwi distance running tradition as I think he'll grab the bronze.
Because of that recent 3:56, I feel that Aregawi will win her first Olympic final with her teammate Dibaba second. Morgan Uceny has, I think, the ability to break the east African assault on this mid-d event and finish an impressive third.
GOLD: ABEBA AREGAWI (ETH) — 3:58.9
SILVER: GENZEBE DIBABA (ETH) — 3:59.6
BRONZE: MORGAN UCENY (USA) — 4:01.0
Like they always do, Kenya will be the country to beat in the "metric mile." Tall and lanky world leader Asbel Kiprop, who just ran a personal best this past Friday of 3:28.88 (which converts to about a 3:45.5 mile) is likely the favorite to win and will be joined by formidable countryman Silas Kiplagat who has done only about half a second slower. The US will be fielding tiny Leo Manzano (3:32.37), defending world bronze medalist Matthew Centrowitz (3:34.46), and towering Andrew Wheating (3:30.60). Of these three, I think Centrowitz has the best chance of bringing a 1500 meter medal back to the States. Nick Willis of New Zealand will be another competitor to look out for — the Kiwi has a PR only a second and a half off Kiprop's.
The thing about 1500 meter finals, especially on the men's side and on big stages like the Games, is that it's often slow until the last lap where it becomes a kicking competition. This'll make it harder to predict not just the places, but the times. At last year's World Championships, this race tactic allowed Centrowitz to pull off a surprise third and could let some more surprise finished happen. Although it can be frustrating watching athletes not try to go after PRs, it usually makes for one hell of an exciting finish.
Despite some quick teammates, I think Kiprop will continue proving he's currently the best 1500 runner in the world and win his second Summer Games gold with Kiplagat finishing on his heals. Nick Willis might just try to revive the great Kiwi distance running tradition as I think he'll grab the bronze.
GOLD: ASBEL KIPROP (KEN) — 3:35.3
SILVER: SILAS KIPLAGAT (KEN) — 3:35.5
BRONZE: NICK WILLIS (NZL) — 3:35.9
5000 METER RUN
5000 METER RUN
East African women will factor into this twelve and half lap race much more than they will in the 1500. Vivian Cheruiyot will be Kenya's top athlete — and with a PR of 14:20.87 will be hard to beat. She'll be joined by former Texas Tech Red Raider Sally Kipyego who boasts a PR only ten seconds slower. As they so often do, these Kenyans will be facing off primarily with their Ethiopian rivals which include Meseret Defar (14:12.88), the second fastest woman in history over 5k. World record holder Tirunesh Dibaba of Ethiopia will be a reserve athlete and will compete only if one of her 5k teammates cannot. America's best hope in getting a medal will likely be national record holder Molly Huddle who has a best time of 14:44.76.
With Defar being history's number two, it's probably wise to pick her as a medalist and I think she'll do so with a gold and season best. Cheruiyot will give her a run for her money, I bet, and will finish a close second with teammate Kipyego third.
With Defar being history's number two, it's probably wise to pick her as a medalist and I think she'll do so with a gold and season best. Cheruiyot will give her a run for her money, I bet, and will finish a close second with teammate Kipyego third.
GOLD: MESERET DEFAR (ETH) — 14:29
SILVER: VIVIAN CHERUIYOT (KEN) — 14:30
BRONZE: SALLY KIPYEGO (KEN) — 14:32
If I got the chance to compete in the Olympics, this is the event I'd choose. The final here will contain a staggering amount of talent from a whole host of countries. The reigning world champion is Great Britain's Mo Farah (12:53.11), the Cockney-accented British 5k and 10k record holder. He has a fantastic kick and will almost undoubtedly win the hosting nation a medal. From across the pond, Farah will have to contend with my favorite distance runner, 37 year old Bernard Lagat (12:53.60), who holds the American records over 1500, 3000, and 5000 meters and American 10k record holder Galen Rupp (12:58.90). Although Rupp won the US trials, Lagat has a kick to match Farah's and will be a huge threat to the whole field (Rupp definitely cannot be counted out either). These Westerners, however, will have a huge challenge to meet from Ethiopia who have Dejen Gebremeskel (12:46.81) who finished third behind Farah and Lagat at last year's World Championships, Hagos Gebrhiwet (12:47.53), and Yenew Alamirew (12:48.77). Few things are more intimidating in distance running than having all three of a country's competitors' PRs within two seconds of each other. Despite such intimidating times coming out of the world's most populous landlocked country, Kenya probably won't be too phased. Isaiah Kiplangat Koech (12:48.64) just ran the fastest time ever on Kenyan soil on his way to a high altitude record and will be joined by Edwin Soi (12:52.40) and Thomas Longosiwa (12:49.04).
Despite faster times from Ethiopia and Kenya (especially Ethiopia), Farah, Lagat, or Rupp could still pull out a win providing they run a very tactical race and time their moves just right. Unless the runners go out looking for sub-12:50 times, I think the race will remain bunched at the front until the end.
Farah, though, should repeat his World Championships performance with an impressive kick over Lagat to win. Lagat should take the silver as he has his best Olympic 5k finish to date with Gebremeskel third.
Farah, though, should repeat his World Championships performance with an impressive kick over Lagat to win. Lagat should take the silver as he has his best Olympic 5k finish to date with Gebremeskel third.
GOLD: MO FARAH (GBR) — 12:55
SILVER: BERNARD LAGAT (USA) — 12:56
BRONZE: DEJEN GEBREMESKEL (ETH) — 12:57
10000 METER RUN
10000 METER RUN
Once again, this will be a race between Kenya and Ethiopia. Cheruiyot (30:48.98) and Kipyego (30:38.35) are going for the double in the two longest track events and will be joined by Joyce Cheruiyot. Ethiopia will have Olympic 10k record holder Tirunesh Dibaba (29:54.66), Beleynesh Oljira (30:26.70), and Werknesh Kidane (30:07.15). The United State's best hope would have been Shalane Flanagan, who holds the national record in 30:22.22, but she left her 10k qualification to focus on the marathon. This one will still be difficult for me to call.
Dibaba is so far ahead of the rest of the field that I think she'll easily win another Olympic gold with her compatriot Oljira second. Kipyego, I'm predicting, wins a second bronze medal.
Dibaba is so far ahead of the rest of the field that I think she'll easily win another Olympic gold with her compatriot Oljira second. Kipyego, I'm predicting, wins a second bronze medal.
GOLD: TIRUNESH DIBABA (ETH) — 30:12
SILVER: BELEYNESH OLJIRA (ETH) — 30:22
BRONZE: SALLY KIPYEGO (KEN) — 30:32
The men's side will be just as or nearly as competitive as the 5000. Farah (26:46.57) and Rupp (26:48.00) will be back with the former looking to avenge his heartbreaking second in last year's World Championships and the latter being the fastest runner of non-African decent in the history of the race. The Ethiopians have so much talent in this 25 lap event that their three competitors are all different from the competitors they had at the last World Championships. Top of the list is the one and only Kenenisa Bekele — the world record holder in both the 5000 and the 10000. The man is a two-time Olympic gold medalist and a four-time world champ all in the 10k alone and boasts an unreal PB of 26:17.53.4 Even though he's run far under the radar this year, he's easily the most dangerous man in the race and will be competing alongside his older brother Tariku (27:03.24). Kenya will field national champ Wilson Kiprop (27:01.98), Moses Masai (26:49.20 — his sister Linet is also a fantastic 10k athlete), and Bidan Karoki. Representing tiny Eritrea, another east African nation, is 5'3'' Zersenay Tadese who holds the world record in the half-marathon and has the second quickest PR in the field at a blazing 26:37.25.
Like the 5000, if this race doesn't go out fast — say, sub-26:50 pace — then the front will likely be bunched until until the finish and the best kickers will come out on top.
As much as I'm sure he would like to outkick an Ethiopian for a 10k title, I don't think Farah can beat Bekele. I think the WR-holder will have his breakthrough race en route to another Olympic victory and continue to demonstrate his dominance in distance running. Tadese should finish quite well and I think he'll round out the medalists.
GOLD: KENENISA BEKELE (ETH) — 26:44
SILVER: MO FARAH (GBR) — 26:46
BRONZE: ZERSENAY TADESE (ERI) — 26:47
3000 METER STEEPLECHASE
2011 world champion Yuliya Zaripova of Russia (9:07.03) probably stands the best chance of taking the gold away from Kenya or Ethiopia this year. The east Africans she'll be up against, though, have times very, very close to her's. This includes Kenya's Milcah Chemos Cheywa, who has a PR 0.11 seconds slower, and Ethiopia's Sofia Assefa and Hiwot Ayalew who have bests of 9:09.00 and 9:09.61, respectively. A north African will also be in medal contention with Tunisia's Habiba Gribi who finished second behind Zaripova last year in the World Championships and has a best of 9:11.97. Two of the US's three competitors, Emma Coburn and Shalaya Kipp are student-athletes at the University of Colorado and, although I don't think they will finish in the top three, will continue to demonstrate the excellent coaching of Mark Wetmore. With many of these top steeplechase runners running some of their best races quite recently, it'll be interesting to see how the final goes tactically and who can come out on top.
Looking at how she's progressed each year, I'd say Cheywa will win it. Assefa should come a close second while Zaripova will finish third to receive her first Olympic medal. I have feeling the top three or four finishers will all be pretty close to each other at the line.
GOLD: MILCAH CHEMOS CHEYWA (KEN) — 9:05
SILVER: SOFIA ASSEFA (ETH) — 9:06
BRONZE: YULIYA ZARIPOVA (RUS) — 9:06
On the men's side, this is very likely Kenya's best event. They love to dominate the most exotic race on the track and head into London with the best three athletes in the event. Last year Brimin Kipruto ran a 7:53.64 — one one-hundredth of a second off the world record — and seems like a good pick to be the favorite. He's joined by Ezekial Kemboi (the current world champ) and Abel Mutai who have respective PRs of 7:55.76 and 8:01.67. The best country to challenge this utter dominance might just be France who have Mahiedine Mekhissi-Benabbad who has two previous season bests in the 8:02s and Vincent Zouaoui-Dandrieux who has a best of 8:14.75. Ethiopia's top athlete will be Roba Gari who a couple months ago posted a PR of 8:06.16. The United States is fielding a relatively young steeplechase squad which include Evan Jager (8:17.40), who has close to zero experience in the event despite becoming national champion, and Princeton's Donald Cabral (8:19.14), who is the reigning NCAA champ. Even though both should PR in London, I doubt either can bring home a medal.
I think Kenya will continue their utter dominance in the 3000 steeplechase by sweeping gold, silver, and bronze with Kipruto, Kemboi, and Mutai. My bet is that the three run together behind a couple leaders through a little over half the race before taking the lead for themselves and working together to the finish line.
I think Kenya will continue their utter dominance in the 3000 steeplechase by sweeping gold, silver, and bronze with Kipruto, Kemboi, and Mutai. My bet is that the three run together behind a couple leaders through a little over half the race before taking the lead for themselves and working together to the finish line.
GOLD: BRIMIN KIPRUTO (KEN) — 7:55
SILVER: EZEKIAL KEMBOI (KEN) — 7:56
BRONZE: ABEL MUTAI (KEN) — 7:56
100 METERS HURDLES
100 METERS HURDLES
The shortest hurdle race on the track may prove to be one of the most exciting women's races of the Games. The US will be fielding three great athletes in Dawn Harper (12.47), Kellie Wells (12.50), and Lolo Jones (12.43). Harper, who won the US trials and the 2008 gold, is probably one of the favorites here while Jones is in the process of making a long comeback after clipping the penultimate hurdle in Beijing and finishing a disappointing seventh. I'd really like to see her do well this year and hopefully make it all the way to the finals. One person to definitely watch will be Sally Pearson from the Land Down Under. The Aussie has a fast PR of 12.28 seconds — 0.07 off the world record and is quick enough to be probably the most likely candidate for gold. Another athlete to look out for is Tiffany Porter (12.56) of Great Britain.
As good as the American athletes are this year, I think the defending world champ Pearson will win the gold in impressive fashion. Harper, I bet, will take the silver a while back with Wells third.
As good as the American athletes are this year, I think the defending world champ Pearson will win the gold in impressive fashion. Harper, I bet, will take the silver a while back with Wells third.
GOLD: SALLY PEARSON (AUS) — 12.28
SILVER: DAWN HARPER (USA) — 12.45
BRONZE: KELLIE WELLS (USA) — 12.47
110 METERS HURDLES
110 METERS HURDLES
This should be one of the most exciting races of the Olympics with the potential to set a new world record. Current WR-holder and Beijing gold-medalist Dayron Robles (12.87) of Cuba will take on China's fantastic (and monstrously competitive) Athens gold-medalist (and second fastest ever) Liu Xiang (12.88) and two outstanding Americans in the laid back defending world champ Jason Richardson (12.98) and up-and-comer world indoor champ Aries Merritt (12.93). American record holder David Oliver (12.89) surprisingly didn't qualify at the trials and won't get the chance to take on the rest of the world's best. While Robles has been running relatively so-so times for the past few years and Liu has only recently finished healing from injury, Richardson and Merritt have been hitting some of their very best times quite recently and will likely be at their best in the final.
After tying the world record at the Prefontaine Classic (albeit with an illegal head wind5) in June, I think Liu is finally back in shape to win another Olympic final. Robles, though, should put up a great fight even though I think he'll lose his WR and come up second. Richardson, I think, will use the luck that he's saved up from refusing to cut his dreads and nab the bronze in a big PR.
GOLD: LIU XIANG (CHN) — 12.86 WR
SILVER: DAYRON ROBLES (CUB) — 12.89
BRONZE: JASON RICHARDSON (USA) — 12.91
400 METERS HURDLES
400 METERS HURDLES
Probably the favorite in this race is American Lashinda Demus, who has a PR of 52.47, is the reigning world champ, the American record holder, and the third fastest 400 hurdler of all time. It will take one hell of a performance to beat her in the final. The best person to challenger her will be Jamaica's Melaine Walker who has a best time of a twentieth of a second faster and won the gold at the last Olympic Games. Russia's Natalya Antyukh (52.92) should be in medal contention as well as another Jamaican — Kaliese Spencer, who has a PR of 52.79.
Despite Walker having a faster PR, I think Demus will officially establish herself as the world's best current 400 meter hurdler with a winning time close to the WR. Walker, though, should finish second in a great time with Antyukh third.
Despite Walker having a faster PR, I think Demus will officially establish herself as the world's best current 400 meter hurdler with a winning time close to the WR. Walker, though, should finish second in a great time with Antyukh third.
GOLD: LASHINDA DEMUS (USA) — 52.39
SILVER: MELAINE WALKER (JAM) — 52.41
BRONZE: NATALYA ANTYUKH (RUS) — 53.01
The United States dominates the men's longer hurdles race the way the Kenyans dominate the men's steeplechase. Six of the last seven golds here have been awarded to Americans with a complete medal sweep four years ago in Beijing. There's hardly a doubt in my mind that this will continue in London. The favorite here is Angelo Taylor (47.25) who finished first in both Syndey in 2000 and in Beijing and is looking for a very impressive third gold in the event. Joining him is two time world champ Kerron Clement (47.24) and Michael Tinsley (48.02), the latter pretty much taking Olympic regular Bershawn "Batman" Jackson's spot on the team. The biggest threat to an American 1-2 (or even 1-2-3) finish could be the Welshman David "Dai" Greene who won last year's World Championship race and has a best of 47.84. Thirty-four year old Felix Sánchez of the Dominican Republic, who won the gold in Athens, is coming in with a PR equal to Taylor's and could be someone to keep an eye on even though he's relatively old. Another to look out for will be South Africa's LJ van Zyl (47.66). Without a doubt, the final will be packed with talent and some fast times will be recorded on the clock.
Even though he's 33, Angelo Taylor has been looking really good as of late and will, I think, take home his third gold with an impressive performance and his usual strong finish. Right behind him, though, should be Clement who will give the US it's fifth medal in the event in two Olympics. David Greene should grab the bronze in another PR.
GOLD: ANGELO TAYLOR (USA) — 47.29
SILVER: KERRON CLEMENT (USA) — 47.31
BRONZE: DAVID GREENE (GBR) — 47.78
4x100 METERS RELAY
4x100 METERS RELAY
Like the 100 and 200, this will be a race between the US and Jamaica. Despite the Americans having the likes of Carmelita Jeter, Allyson Felix, Tianna Madison (10.96), and Jeneba Tarmoh (11.07), the combination of Fraser-Pryce, Campbell-Brown, and Stewart should be enough to take the win. To make matters worse for the US, their 4x100 always manages to screw it up in the final — whether it's one of the runners's randomly tripping or just fudging up a hand-off, the Americans oftentimes can't keep it together. They did, however, manage to pull off the win in the 2011 World Champs to beat Jamaica by 0.14 seconds. Even though the island nation will be fielding the same four athletes that they did a year ago, their individual 100 times are good enough for me to give them the advantage. Other countries with good 4x100 teams include France, Ukraine, and Russia.
Predicting times for these will be difficult and I'll have to go off of previous performances and individual 100 meter PRs. First, though, should be Jamaica with the United States close behind. I'll say Russia gets the bronze. And this is assuming the Americans can finish the race.
Predicting times for these will be difficult and I'll have to go off of previous performances and individual 100 meter PRs. First, though, should be Jamaica with the United States close behind. I'll say Russia gets the bronze. And this is assuming the Americans can finish the race.
GOLD: JAMAICA — 41.55
SILVER: UNITED STATES — 41:59
BRONZE: RUSSIA — 42:28
You only really need one word to sum up this race: Jamaica. With three of the four fastest men to ever live on their relay team, the only way another country will win gold is by either Bolt, Blake, Powell, or Michael Frater (9.88) doing something to DQ their team or just falling or dropping the baton. Even a perfect and miraculous performance from another country will not be enough to top the men in yellow and green. The favorite for silver here will be the United States...but this comes with a huge caveat: Like the women, but worse, the US men are fantastically consistent in blowing it in the final of a major race — in fact, I'm not sure I've even seen them complete the race since I started paying attention to track.6 They've dropped the baton, passed too early, stepped out of their lane, and even tripped on another country's guy's foot. As much as I'd love to see the US medal, I have a really tough time seeing them complete the race (let alone completing it legally). Even though Jamaica's performance will steal the show, the race for bronze should be very exciting with so many countries good enough to take it. France, the tiny islands of Saint Kitts and Nevis, Trinidad and Tobago, and Great Britain all have a shot at medaling.
For the third time in four years, Jamaica should set the world record (by way of shredding the current one into itsy-bitsy pieces) and win by a ridiculous margin (especially if the US doesn't finish). Assuming the United States manages not to botch their race again, they should take the silver in an impressive time (even though it might not look impressive due to Jamaica). As much as I'd like to see Great Britain finish third (even though they got the US DQ'd a few years ago), I think France will nab the last medal.
For the third time in four years, Jamaica should set the world record (by way of shredding the current one into itsy-bitsy pieces) and win by a ridiculous margin (especially if the US doesn't finish). Assuming the United States manages not to botch their race again, they should take the silver in an impressive time (even though it might not look impressive due to Jamaica). As much as I'd like to see Great Britain finish third (even though they got the US DQ'd a few years ago), I think France will nab the last medal.
GOLD: JAMAICA — 36.90 WR
SILVER: UNITED STATES — 37.50
BRONZE: FRANCE — 38.10
4x400 METERS RELAY
4x400 METERS RELAY
As always, the favorite in this race is the United States. With Richards-Ross undoubtedly anchoring, it will be extremely difficult for another country to pull out the win. And unlike their 4x100, the US can finish this relay (it is, admittedly, a much easier relay to hand-off in). The biggest threat to the US's continued domination in this race is the other sprinting giant, Jamaica. They finished second to the States in the last two World Championships. Other traditionally great 4x4 teams include Russia, Great Britain, and Belarus.
The US should be almost a shoe-in for the gold with Jamaica getting the silver and Russia with the bronze. Even if they're not leading with 200 left, Richards-Ross will power the United States to the win.
GOLD: UNITED STATES — 3:17.5
SILVER: JAMAICA — 3:18:5
BRONZE: RUSSIA — 3:19.4
In high school, this was always the most exciting race to watch. For the US men, the 4x4 is a lot like the 400 hurdles — they always dominate it. In fact, every world record ever set but one has been by the US.7 This year, it shouldn't be any different. The combination of world number one LaShawn Merritt with Florida's Tony McQuay, USC's Bryshon Nellum, and very likely Angelo Taylor (maybe they'll put in Kerron Clement for Nellum — who knows) will result in another Olympic victory. And like the women's 4x4, the men can complete the relay. With Merritt at anchor, even being in second or third with as little as 100 meters to go shouldn't be a problem thanks to his phenomenal stamina and kick down the homestretch. Like the race for bronze in the 4x100, the race for silver here will be exciting with many countries good enough the take the runner-up spot. These include Jamaica, South Africa, Great Britain, Germany, Belgium, Kenya, Poland, and the Bahamas.
As usual, the US men will win this race with outstanding performances in each leg. I think Merritt will manage a sub-43.50 split as he runs away with the victory. I'll say Jamaica will get second and South Africa, hopefully with Oscar Pistorius running a leg, a close third.
As usual, the US men will win this race with outstanding performances in each leg. I think Merritt will manage a sub-43.50 split as he runs away with the victory. I'll say Jamaica will get second and South Africa, hopefully with Oscar Pistorius running a leg, a close third.
GOLD: UNITED STATES — 2:56.2
SILVER: JAMAICA — 2:59.9
BRONZE: SOUTH AFRICA — 3:00.0
1 I'll confess that I could not find the trials results for every country that have an athlete I mention so I have to presume that a few of these athletes qualified for the Olympics.
3 The guy ran a 46.96 when he was 14 years old — I kid you not. That's over ten seconds faster than my personal best (and I was 18 when I did it).
4 That's an average of 4:13.9 per mile for 6.2 miles.
5 If you race in a fast enough tail wind (100m, 100H, 110H, or 200m), your time won't count as a world record, national record, etc. since the wind is considered fast enough to physically assist you in your race.
6 At the 2009 World Championships in Berlin, the US actually completed the race, but were disqualified after Great Britain pointed out that they had a lane violation during the race — one of the American runners stepped a smidgen out of his lane.
7 Or a team from the US, such as Stanford University in 1931.
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